Tracking Typhoons

TRACKING TYPHOONS

by Antonio C. Antonio

July 16, 2014

Technological advances in GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and mapping have eradicated guesswork and made tracking typhoons very easy.  With this, all we need to do is tune in to our favourite newscast and their weather segment will most likely show photos or graphics on the track of typhoons.  Social media, like Facebook, is also a good source as netizens are quick to post and repost typhoon-related information and images of the track of typhoons.

More often than not, however, we also experience power interruptions and lengthy brownouts as the storm approaches and for the duration of the typhoon.  So what happens now that our television sets and computers are incapable of providing updates on the location of the typhoon?  Our best bet is the traditionally glorified battery-operated AM transistor radio where we could find a station that feeds news updates on the typhoon.  I would agree that nothing beats being prepared but what if, for some reason, we don’t have this radio in the house… what now?

We lost electricity in our area (Paranaque City) at around 4am and most people could not sleep because of the persistent howling of Typhoon Glenda’s strong wind (estimated between 150 to 180 kph) and the eerie sound of projectiles flying all over the place.  While Glenda was battering Metro Manila early this morning to about noon today, I was cracking my brain devising a way to track her whereabouts. Tracking her position was a daunting task in the early morning darkness but it became easier by sunrise.  Obviously distraught, my entire family kept asking where Glenda was and, to calm them down somewhat, I had to use my Boy Scout instincts to adapt to the situation and find a novel way to provide them the information they wanted.  It gave them some degree of comfort knowing that someone in the house knew what was going on out there and could assure them how much longer they had to endure with this worrisome situation.  Given the precariousness of our situation, I had to show them a brave and self-assured front… although I sincerely was nervous and scared too.   In the effort, I discovered a way to estimate the position of Glenda’s eye with the crude materials available.  So here’s what happened…

MATERIALS USED: (a) A map of the Philippines; (b) a field compass; and, (c) a pencil… and, more importantly, the trees in our neighbourhood.  I used the pencil to plot the movement of Typhoon Glenda (International Name: “Rammasun”) on the map and the compass to verify the relative position of our house to the last known location of the eye of the storm.

ESSENTIAL INFORMATION NEEDED:  (a) The projected track of the typhoon; (b) the projected movement or speed of travel; (c) Rotation (counter-clockwise in the case of Glenda); and (d) the radius of the typhoon (estimated between 200 to 250 kilometers).  All of these information should be gathered from news reports and updates prior to the shutdown of electricity so we can make intelligent assumptions in the period when we could no longer be aided by media.

METHODOLOGY AND PROCEDURE:  From the time we lost power at around 4am, the last known location of Typhoon Glenda was the Bicol Region.  There was nothing much I could do to determine wind direction in the next 2 hours since it was too dark to see the movement of the trees in our neighbourhood.  I should mention that wind direction plays a large part in determining the position of the eye of the storm.  At daybreak, visibility improved and I could tell that the wind direction was 270 degrees (West).  Using known data (projected track, radius, directional rotation, wind strength and radius), I estimated the eye to be somewhere in Albay.  By 7am, wind direction changed to 285 degrees (West-North West)… estimating the eye to be in Camarines Sur. By 8am, wind direction changed to 305 degrees (North-West)… and with the winds picking up speed (meaning: the typhoon was coming closer to where we were), the eye was estimated to be in Quezon. By 9am, with the wind picking up more speed, wind direction changed again to 325 degrees (North-North West)… estimating Glenda’s eye to be in Laguna. By 10am, wind velocity was at its strongest, wind direction changed further to 355 degrees (North)… estimating the storm to be in Cavite.  By 11am, wind direction was 5 degrees (North) and with the wind weakening considerably, the eye of Glenda is estimated to have crossed Manila Bay towards the Bataan Peninsula.  The weather condition in Metro Manila started to get better from this point.

Typhoon Glenda has left but not without giving us a big scare.  Right now, we still don’t know the extent of the damage she caused to the Eastern Visayas, Bicol and Southern Tagalog, Central Luzon Regions and the Metro Manila area.  Damage to properties seems low… let’s just pray that the death toll is equally low. 

Looking back at the exercise, it really was a good one.  It might even be a good lesson in human adaptation given specific conditions.  What began as a simple act of providing my family a measure of confidence in the face of a bad girl (Glenda), turned out to be another valuable lesson...  I also discovered another function which we could add to the long list of benefits trees give us… they could also be used in tracking typhoons.

Just my little thoughts…

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